Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)

In his June 13, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin concludes his Geo-Strategy course by discussing how to use AI to chart a better future for humanity: In his Foundation series, Isaac Asimov introduces the science of psychohistory. Is it really possible to predict the future by mathematically modeling historical development? By mathematically modeling history, "Cliodynamics" has revealed interesting patterns. For example, Peter Turchin has discovered that it's the "over-production of elites" that drives social upheaval. The advent of AI presents new possibilities for the mathematical modeling of history, and can even help us achieve psychohistory. But to do so would require decades of painstaking research and analysis. It would also mean overturning the entire field of history, and looking at all of the past with a more critical and nuanced eye. Finally, much of this research and development can only happen in a time of global collapse, when all of humanity is united in creating an open, progressive, and democratic future. In his final message to his students, Jiang Xueqin stresses that the future is not something that happens -- it is something that has to be imagined and fought for.