This week on Prof G Markets, Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the aluminum and steel tariffs, Trump’s plan to close the carried interest loophole, and Elon Musk’s bid for OpenAI. Then Alice Han, China economist and director at Greenmantle, returns to the show to break down the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on China’s economy. She explains how China’s weak consumer environment is driving down prices domestically, weighs in on what the “Sputnik moment” of DeepSeek means for China’s place in the AI race, and offers her take on the country’s relationship with Elon Musk. Finally, Alice shares why she believes we’re entering a period of heightened geopolitical instability.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Today's number
00:29 - Today's episode
02:54 - Headlines
03:50 - Tariffs on steel and aluminum
06:32 - Carried interest loophole
09:51 - Elon Musk's group
22:01 - Ad break
24:35 - The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han
25:18 - Where does China’s economy stand today?
26:52 - What is deflation and why is China suffering from the opposite problem as everyone else in the world?
28:54 - What will the tariffs do to the Chinese economy?
30:55 - Could tariffs hurt China in the short term but have long-term consequences for the U.S.?
33:39 - Do you think American companies or Chinese companies have been hurt more by weak demand in China?
35:05 - How important is the de minimus provision to Chinese and American companies?
37:19 - What is your view on Shein?
39:11 - Which other sectors or companies are disrupting European and American companies?
42:00 - How is Tesla fairing against BYD in China?
43:01 - Do you think China thinks they can control Elon?
45:12 - Ad break
46:40 - Do you think China is more or less likely to invade Taiwan now that Trump is in office?
49:17 - How real is the threat of DeepSeek on AI and Big Tech?
52:23 - Do you agree with Jamie Dimon that the number one risk going for this year is geopolitical instability?
54:03 - Do you think people are going to start going back to China?
57:04 - Credits
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