The Hidden Flaw in Monte Carlo Analysis That's Ruining Retirement Plans

Many retirees focus on achieving a high Monte Carlo “probability of success” in retirement—but is chasing a 99% success rate always the best move? In this episode, James highlights a real-life story of a man forced to delay retirement after a divorce dropped his probability of success from 99% to 70%. James explores why this single number shouldn't drive such massive decisions. He explains how context—like income sources, spending flexibility, and home equity—matters more than a static success rate. You’ll learn why 100% isn’t always ideal, and how to build a retirement plan that supports a meaningful life, not just a perfect score. Questions answered? 1. Should I delay retirement if my Monte Carlo probability of success drops? 2. Is a 100% probability of success the best goal for my retirement plan? ======================= 🔗 Connect with us → https://learn.rootfinancialpartners.com/connect and on Root Financial's Youtube Channel → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCopKwWs9ea1dAOxqZOqBjpg Get access to the retirement software I use and more → https://retirement-planning-academy.mykajabi.com/rpa Join our NEW community for FREE →https://ari-taublieb.mykajabi.com/the-root-collective _ _ ⏱Timestamps:⏱ 0:00 - An encounter at the gym 2:37 - What is Monte Carlo analysis? 4:18 - Consider severity of failure 6:19 - Consider other assets, like property 7:35 - Is a 100% probability score really success? 10:55 - Monitor and course correct 14:13 - Margin 15:07 - No universal number 16:13 - Assumptions about spending 18:27 - Retirement spending smile 20:57 - Context matters