The Graph That Explains Most of Geopolitics Today | Professor Hugh White

For decades, US allies have slept soundly under the protection of America’s overwhelming military might. Donald Trump — with his threats to ditch NATO, seize Greenland, and abandon Taiwan — seems hell-bent on shattering that arrangement. But according to Hugh White — one of the world's leading strategic thinkers, emeritus professor at the ANU, and author of _Hard New World: Our Post American Future_ — Trump isn't destroying American hegemony. He's simply revealing that it's already gone. “Trump has very little trouble accepting other great powers as co-equals,” Hugh explains. And that happens to align perfectly with a strategic reality the foreign policy establishment desperately wants to ignore: fundamental shifts in global power have made the costs of maintaining a US-led hegemony prohibitively high. Even under Biden, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the US sent weapons but explicitly ruled out direct involvement. Ukraine matters far more to Russia than America, and this “asymmetry of resolve” makes Putin’s nuclear threats credible where America’s counterthreats simply aren’t. Hugh’s gloomy prediction: “Europeans will end up conceding to Russia whatever they can’t convince the Russians they’re willing to fight a nuclear war to deny them.” The Pacific tells the same story. Despite Obama’s “pivot to Asia” and Biden’s tough talk about “winning the competition for the 21st century,” actual US military capabilities there have barely budged while China’s have soared, along with its economy — which is now bigger than the US’s, as measured in purchasing power. Containing China and defending Taiwan would require America to spend 8% of GDP on defence (versus 3.5% today) — and convince Beijing it’s willing to accept Los Angeles being vaporised. Unlike during the Cold War, no president — Trump or otherwise — can make that case to voters. So what’s next? Hugh’s prognoses are stark: • Taiwan is in an impossible situation. • South Korea, Japan, and one of the EU or Poland will have to go nuclear to defend themselves. • Trump might actually follow through and annex Panama and Greenland — but probably not Canada. • Australia can defend itself from China but needs an entirely different military to do it. Our new “multipolar” future, split between American, Chinese, Russian, Indian, and European spheres of influence, is a “darker world” than the golden age of US dominance. But Hugh’s message is blunt: for better or worse, 35 years of American hegemony are over. The challenge now is managing the transition peacefully. In today’s conversation, Hugh and Rob explore why even AI supremacy might not restore US dominance (spoiler: China still has nukes), why Japan can defend itself but Taiwan can’t, and why a new president won’t be able to reverse the big picture. Learn more: https://80k.info/hw _Recorded May 30, 2025._ *Tell us what you thought!* https://forms.gle/AM91VzL4BDroEe6AA Chapters: • Cold open (00:00:00) • Who's Hugh White? (00:00:43) • US hegemony is already gone and has been fading for years (00:01:25) • Unipolar dominance is the aberration (00:03:26) • Why did the US bother to stay involved after the Cold War? (00:13:08) • Does the US think it's accepting a multipolar global order? (00:23:25) • How Trump has significantly brought forward the inevitable (00:36:41) • Are Trump and Rubio explicitly in favour of this multipolar outcome? (00:43:21) • Trump is half-right that the US was being ripped off (00:45:42) • It doesn't matter if the next president feels differently (00:50:14) • China's population is shrinking, but that doesn't change much (00:56:17) • Why Hugh disagrees with other realists like Mearsheimer (01:06:07) • Could the US be persuaded to spend 2x on defence to stay dominant? (01:10:52) • A multipolar world is bad, but better than the alternative: nuclear war (01:16:22) • Will the US invade Panama? Greenland? Canada?! (01:21:46) • Will the US turn the screws and start exploiting nearby countries? (01:28:54) • What should everyone else do to protect themselves in this new world? (01:32:01) • Europe is strong enough to take on Russia, except it lacks nuclear deterrence (01:39:41) • The EU will probably build European nuclear weapons (01:44:03) • Cancel some orders of US fighter planes (01:48:34) • Taiwan is screwed, even with its AI chips (01:53:40) • South Korea has to go nuclear (02:04:12) • Japan will go nuclear, but can't be a regional leader (02:08:08) • Australia is defensible but needs a totally different military (02:11:44) • AGI may or may not overcome existing nuclear deterrence (02:17:19) • How right is realism? (02:34:24) • Has a country ever gone to war over pure morality? (02:40:17) • Hugh's message for Americans (02:44:45) • Addendum: Why America temporarily stopped being isolationist (02:47:12) _Video editing: Simon Monsour_ _Audio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic Armstrong_ _Music: Ben Cordell_ _Transcriptions and web: Katy Moore_