Nuclear Modernisation - Rearmament, ageing stockpiles and why Russia's nukes work (probably)

Sponsored by Ground News: Compare coverage to spot sensational content and identify the facts with Ground News https://ground.news/perun. Save 40% off during their Black Friday sale. Offer ends Dec 2. Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work? The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament. But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels. In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories: https://thebulletin.org/#navbar-brand https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/ https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/ https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2023/ RAND - US China military scorecard (featuring counter-force modelling) https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html NNSA on Plutonium Pit Production https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/plutonium-pit-production Government Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Production https://www.gao.gov/blog/over-budget-and-delayed-whats-next-u.s.-nuclear-weapons-research-and-production-projects GAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisation https://www.gao.gov/nuclear-weapons-and-forces-sustainment-and-modernization GAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability” https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-104661 Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57130 CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59365 USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheet https://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/Docs/Sentinel/LGM-35A%20Sentinel%20Fact%20Sheet%20cao%206%20Apr.pdf Mattis and the nuclear sponge https://www.defensenews.com/space/2017/01/12/mattis-enthusiastic-on-icbms-tepid-on-nuclear-cruise-missile/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVRabFpqVTBNemszT0RWbSIsInQiOiJhaDhFaXdndE1tWjNnc3NwblkwWWNTWFJ2elgxZzJLVElUTFhUOWtNa3ZQbmhkdXlUd0srU0FjeEtuYzVSSlJPNDUyaDRsVkNzK0JsNG5XVnJVblllcUQ0TDY3bmpud1wvWXZ6OVBwaGMxMlEwWHN3UTFvOVgyMWhmTzd6dFh5SisifQ%3D%3D NNSA warhead activities factsheet https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/05/f62/2019-05-02-FACTSHEET-WeaponsActivities.pdf NNSA W76-1 Fact sheet https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357923 CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh) https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201210_Hersman_US_Nuclear.pdf US 2022 National Defence Strategy https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF CRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12266 CRS on Nuclear Triad https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10519 Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmat https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-satan-ii-icbm-missile-failed-putin-new-start-nuclear-treaty/ First Strike IMDb entry https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2429312/ Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol - How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/ Reporting on production of Pits at Los Alamos https://time.com/6296743/los-alamos-lab-plutonium-pits-nuclear-weapons/ Report on Sarmat going “on duty” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2/russia-puts-advanced-sarmat-nuclear-missile-system-on-combat-duty Wired – on Russian nukes not working https://www.wired.com/story/nuclear-weapons-testing/ UK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UK https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9077/ Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply and please see the pinned comment for corrections. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation 00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation 00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision 00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb 00:21:45 — United States 00:34:54 — Russia 00:54:27 — China 01:02:22 — France 01:07:08 — United Kingdom 01:10:55 — Conclusion 01:11:48 — Channel Update