Kenneth Rogoff on Monetary Moves, Fiscal Gambits, and Classical Chess | Conversations with Tyler

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff approaches global finance with the same strategic foresight that made him a chess grandmaster. Author of the new book Our Dollar, Your Problem, Rogoff doesn't sugarcoat America's future: he foresees a significant inflation shock within a decade, far more severe than the post-COVID bout. When this second wave hits, he warns, "credibility's really going to be shot." In this conversation, Ken and Tyler tackle international economic dynamics, unresolved macro puzzles, the state of chess, and more, including whether trade deficits are truly unsustainable, why China's investment-heavy growth model has reached its limits, how currency depreciation neutralizes tariff effects, Pakistan’s IMF bailouts, whether more Latin American countries should dollarize, Japan's deceptively peaceful economic decline, Europe's coming fiscal reckoning, how the US will eventually confront its ballooning debt, the puzzling absence of a recession during our recent disinflation, the potential of phasing out large denomination currency notes, the future relevance of stablecoins, whether America should start a CBDC, Argentina's chances under Milei, who will be the next dominant player in chess, hanging out with Bobby Fischer, drawing out against Magnus Carlsen, and how to save classical chess from excessive computer preparation. Recorded April 2nd, 2025 Transcript and links: https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/kenneth-rogoff/ Stay connected: Follow us on X, IG, and Facebook: @cowenconvos https://www.twitter.com/cowenconvos https://www.facebook.com/cowenconvos https://www.instagram.com/cowenconvos Join us on Discord: https://discord.gg/JAVWP7vTxt https://conversationswithtyler.com https://mercatus.org Timestamps 00:00:00 - On monetary moves, fiscal gambits, and classical chess 00:02:26 - On China’s macro policy 00:11:34 - On Pakistan’s bailouts 00:13:40 - On dollarizing Latin and Caribbean economies 00:16:26 - On Japan 00:20:12 - On financial repression in the EU 00:24:24 - On the US fiscal position 00:34:08 - On phasing out (some) currency 00:41:04 - On macro puzzles 00:50:01 - On chess