How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower

Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people. As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology. So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it? Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Relevant sources and reading: NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations) https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/29/south-korea-s-military-needs-bold-reforms-to-overcome-shrinking-population-pub-84822 UK Defence Personnel Statistics https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ministry-of-defence-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2023 Mediazona Russian KIA count https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng US Army Demographics: https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2022/11/15/62a2d64b/active-component-demographic-report-october-2022.pdf ADF demographics https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/service-australian-defence-force-census/latest-release ROK conscript mobile phone trial https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190212000549&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8n11KMdPpIkEaFVDCi5PtwNy2Ko3jEL5XjBnV2H5mYaE9MuYTamttOQdWQqXNx6CsbLVuW US misses recruiting goal: https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/10/02/army-misses-recruiting-goal-by-15000-soldiers/ https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/#:~:text=Ashish%20Vazirani%20said%20that%20during,recruiting%20environment%2C%22%20he%20said. https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2023/09/army-recruiting-better-last-year-still-short-goal-officials-say/390357/ https://news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-say father and son deploying together https://www.military.com/daily-news/2013/05/09/national-guard-father-son-deploy-together.html David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/#:~:text=How%20bad%20is%20the%20recruiting,likely%20to%20be%20even%20worse. CDC data https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/resources/unfit-to-serve/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.html US Army recruiting reforms: https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/10/03/after-missing-goal-again-army-announces-sweeping-recruiting-reforms/ https://www.army.mil/article/270458/army_announces_transformation_of_its_recruiting_enterprise https://www.army.mil/article/270692/army_details_five_ways_to_bring_recruiting_into_21st_century UK medical classifications 1914 https://eehe.org.uk/?p=25030 Institutional trust levels: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/09/04/trust-in-the-military-exceeds-trust-in-other-institutions-in-western-europe-and-u-s/ USAREC: https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/ Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia https://jamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteers/ Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509 USAF pilot poaching https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2016/03/26/air-force-hopes-to-head-off-the-poaching-of-its-pilots/ Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and limitations apply: In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About 00:02:33 — History 00:07:57 — The Funnel 00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge 00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions 00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge 00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions 00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem 00:25:22 — Driving Propensity 00:27:33 — Retention 00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP" 00:37:35 — Looking Abroad 00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation 00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study 01:04:46 — Conclusion 01:05:29 — Channel Update