CMAF FFT: The role and challenges of forecasting for circular economic operations

This is the third webinar in the 3 Season of "Friday Forecasting Talks", hosted by Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University, UK. Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lancastercmaf/ CMAF on Twitter: https://twitter.com/LancasterCMAF CMAF webinars: https://cmaf-fft.lp151.com/ *Content of this video* 00:00 - Introduction 02:30 - Presentation by Thanos Goltsos 05:07 - Principles of Circular Economy 17:05 - Forecasting for Circular Economy Operations 31:00 - Forecasting performance in CE 38:10 - Summary 42:10 - Next steps 43:40 - Comments by Robert Fildes 54:10 - Q&A The abstract: Environmental sustainability is a global priority as finite resources are being depleted at an unprecedented rate. The traditional linear economic model of make–use–dispose is leading to irreparable ecological damage and is no longer a viable option, and the shift towards a Circular Economy (CE) and a make–use–reuse model is already underway. The transition to a CE is a complex undertaking that has major implications for operations management. Circular strategies and operations such as repair, remanufacturing, repurposing, and others, must now deal with extra uncertainties stemming from the core (used product) acquisition and transformation process. These operations rely upon accurate forecasts of demand, returns and net demand (demand minus returns) requirements. Net demand (forecasting) departs from traditional demand (forecasting) on two fronts: a) its returns (forecast) constituent depends on past (and at times within-lead time) demand, and b) both net demand and its forecasts can take positive, negative, or zero values. These issues have made net demand characterisation and forecasting challenging, and the measurement of its accuracy problematic. In this upcoming webinar I will discuss concepts, methods, and challenges on the intersection of three areas: circular economy and strategies therein, forecasting, and forecast accuracy measurement. Speaker: Thanos Goltsos Bio: Thanos holds an MEng in Mechanical Engineering (incl. MSc in Industrial Management) from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, an MSc in Business Analysis and Management (hons) from Loughborough University, and a PhD in operations management from the Management Science Laboratory of Athens University of Business and Economics. His research and teaching interests revolve around forecasting and inventory control with a focus on the operations management side of the Circular Economy, (forward and) reverse supply chains, simulation, and optimisation.