China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:19) Lennart’s core thesis (03:26)   Why compute matters so much (07:31)  The investment split between model R&D and model execution (11:18)  How test-time compute impacts costs (16:14) The geopolitics of compute (21:32) Why does the U.S have more compute capacity than China? (25:01)  The trade-off between economic needs and national-security needs (31:54)  How technology change might shift the battlegrounds (35:33)  Dealing with compute and power concentration (48:19)  Concluding quick-fire question Lennart's links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/ohlennart Personal website: https://heim.xyz/ Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd