@Asianometry & Dylan Patel – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works

Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware: https://www.semianalysis.com/ Jon Y runs @Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history. Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=seXQ6K_LQZeAV6776H6MhQ Me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp Sponsors: - Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go here: https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh - Stripe builds financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more here: https://stripe.com/ Timestamps: 0:00:00 – Xi’s path to AGI 0:05:05 – Liang Mong Song 0:09:10 – How semiconductors get better 0:12:01 – China can centralize compute 0:19:35 – Export controls & sanctions 0:33:36 – Huawei’s intense culture 0:39:36 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified 0:41:43 – N2 should not exist 0:46:38 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical 0:50:06 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors 0:59:58 – Chip architecture design 1:05:21 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US 1:10:57 – Being head of compute at an AI lab 1:17:09 – Scaling costs and power demand 1:37:50 – Are we financing an AI bubble? 01:51:05 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis 02:06:55 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise